longer6 schreef op 7 feb 2015 om 00:47:
why would oil go to 74.44 on the middleterm. supply data still too bearish. even with russia, us etc cutting resources. we need saudi arabia to cut. also the economic data coming out not that great. us jobs report is nice but PMI shows slowdown. everywhere. if goes to 74 then pure manipulation to set stocks higher. equals big crash someday. this financial bubble will collapse when interest rates are increased. mid june 2015. us fed cannot delay much longer, wages growing, jobs reports fine... they have to. they try to find excuses not to. but they have to. wages growth (inflation) justifies interest rate increase. rate increase will make a (big) correction happen. stocks dont like interest increase.
for now we will have just a regular correction. it should come about now. maybe 1, max 2 weeks longer. top-consilidation takes some time. aex will be moving between 450 and 456 before the hammer hits it. dont think we will set new highs (
). i am quite bearish, starting yesterday. this is not talking to position. ofcourse i am short. market is tired.
would be very very surprised if aex is capable to set a new top > 460.
good luck, have a great weekend!