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SBM Offshore - off topic - september 2014
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Deels de bevestiging van eerder artikel: tot in 2016 maakt Petrobras 'sweet spot' door, maar daarna kunnen productievertragingen van binnenlandse bouwers problemen veroorzaken. Brazil 'sweet spot' seen through 2016 Petrobras output: Credit Suisse sees smooth sailing for production growth 30 September 2014 16:14 GMT Brazil's Petrobras is poised to see a "sweet spot" of output growth between 2014 and 2016 as contracted production units come online, analysts said, but the 2016-2018 outlook is more uncertain. Credit Suisse told clients in a note that the state-led player is breaking out of a "low to no growth" period since 2009, adding roughly 1 million barrels per day of production capacity as floating production, storage and offloading systems come online. With one FPSO due to start up in 2015 and improved Campos basin efficiency thanks to the Proef maintenance programme, the company is expected to see annual production growth rates of between 6% and 10% at "relatively low risk". "The years 2014-16 are truly sweet," analysts wrote. "The period after, however, is already starting to look more challenging with a number of risks and delays to locally built FPSOs," If the predictions are fulfilled and Petrobras efforts go according to plan, production gains are rare good news for the company that could buy it some breathing room investors as it currently grapples with the fallout of a range of scandals. The company is targeting production growth of 4.2 million bpd by 2020 from about 2.1 million bpd today. The next phase of Petrobras' production push, however, is another major challenge that includes 13 more FPSOs due to add 1.9 million bpd of capacity. That has "tangible implications" for explorers involved such as Petrobras, Galp of Portugal and BG of the UK, as well as shipyards Keppel, Sembcorp, Vard, and Cosco. "Resuming in 2016/17 is a large new 'wall' of capacity additions...now mostly dependent on Brazilian shipyards and players that have not been performing well," Credit Suisse continued. "(Petrobras) and partners have continuously shifted scope out of Brazil into China, but we wonder until when this can continue." Credit Suisse believes the process for the giant pre-salt Libra field is "going well" following its award to a Petrobras-led consortium of Shell, Total, CNOOC and CNPC. "The consortium is also well ahead to securing the FPSO for the extended well test in Libra to take place in 2016," the firm said, calling the $425,000 per day contract to an Odebrecht-Teekay tieup "one of the fastest decisions in a FPSO tender we have seen in a long time." The proposal was due to be heard by Petrobras' board in the last week of September, suggesting a final contract could be signed as soon as October or November.
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