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Home  /  Forum  /  Arcelor Mittal  /  Mittal in augustus: Kickstart of pitstop?

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Aandeel ArcelorMittal AEX:MT.NL, LU1598757687

  • 23,760 16 apr 2024 17:39
  • -1,760 (-6,90%) Dagrange 23,570 - 24,370
  • 8.435.640 Gem. (3M) 2,3M

Mittal in augustus: Kickstart of pitstop?

1.383 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 45 46 47 48 49 ... 70 »» | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  3. [verwijderd] 21 augustus 2014 16:40
    quote:

    330ix schreef op 21 augustus 2014 16:33:

    [...]

    SBM is een zooi en zal eens een keer het BAM-scenario gaan volgen en Aperam lijkt mij veel te duur en dus vatbaar voor een flinke neerwaartse correctie.
    Wij moeten met ons AM wat geduld hebben. De stijging komt nog wel.
    Hoop zo snel mogelijk 330ix ben er echt helemaal klaaaaaaar mee.
  11. forum rang 10 voda 21 augustus 2014 22:21
    AEX-fondsen op Wall Street, slot

    AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--Van de AEX-fondsen met een notering in de VS, staan er na het slot van Wall Street 4 op winst in vergelijking met hun slotkoers op de AEX, 0 onveranderd en 4 op verlies. Omgerekend boekt de AEX op Wall Street een winst van 0,28 punten (0,07%).

    De fondsen op een rij, met achter hun naam de koers op Wall Street (omgerekend in euro's) en het verschil tussen de koers in New York en de slotkoers in Amsterdam (in percentage):

    Aegon 5,81 (0,69%) Arcelor Mittal 10,62 (-0,19%) ASML 70,96 (0,64%) ING Groep 10,35 (0,39%) Kon. Olie 30,04 (-0,17%) Philips 23,07 (-0,17%) Reed Elsevier 17,29 (0,12%) Unilever 31,19 (-0,03%)

    Bron: Wallstreetweb.nl

    - Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst; +31-20-5715200; amsterdam@dowjones.com


  13. Bir 22 augustus 2014 02:13
    quote:

    snuf13 schreef op 21 augustus 2014 21:17:

    Zeker gaat het goed met mij en met mijn shorts ook:)))
    En AEX morgen weer omhoog en de yanks omhoog en bedenk wat er dan morgen omlaag gaat.
    Ja, je shorts snuf! Maar pas je daarmee wel een beetje op? Want je weet wat ze zeggen hè.......een grote bek betekent veelal een kleine piemel, dus let op dat ie niet weg waait! :-)))

    Succes en grtn Bir.
  19. g.raaier 22 augustus 2014 09:56
    seekingalpha.com/article/2439565-arce...

    ArcelorMittal Down, But Not Out

    Summary
    •ArcelorMittal management bit the bullet and lowered guidance for the year in the face of ongoing weakness in iron ore prices.
    •The global construction recovery remains frustratingly slow and opportunities to raise steel prices may be more limited in the second half, putting more stress on a volume recovery.
    •ArcelorMittal continues to look too cheap at about 5.5x forward EBITDA.

    You'd be hard-pressed to find a steel stock that has done worse since my last favorable write-up on ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT). The shares are down about 13% since then, about as much as Latin American steel companies Ternium (NYSE:TX) and Gerdau (NYSE:GGB), but worse than Nucor (NYSE:NUE) and much, much worse than Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ:STLD), AK Steel (NYSE:AKS), and U.S. Steel (NYSE:X).

    This article was sent to 5,489 people who get email alerts on MT.

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    That ArcelorMittal is underperforming AK Steel and U.S. Steel isn't shocking to me; less efficient players like U.S. Steel and AK Steel do better in recovering markets and both of those companies are more highly leveraged to the U.S. market (one of the stronger steel markets today). Some of the other relative performances are a little harder to explain; tempting as it may be to blame ArcelorMittal's woes on weak iron ore, even Vale (NYSE:VALE) and Fortescue (OTCQX:FSUGY) (both iron miners) have outperformed ArcelorMittal over the past three-plus months. With all of that said, I'm still bullish on ArcelorMittal as a play on better steel prices, production rationalizations, and a global construction recovery.

    Not Great, But Not As Bad As Feared

    Investors were nervous going into the second quarter earnings report from ArcelorMittal and while it wasn't a great report, it wasn't the disaster that bears predicted. Revenue rose 3% (5% sequentially), good for a small beat versus the average of sell-side estimates, on 3% yoy shipment growth. Mining revenue rose 2% with iron ore shipments up 14% yoy. Within the steel operations, NAFTA led the way in terms of reported growth (up 13% yoy), with AACIS up 7%, Europe flat, and Brazil down 7%.

    Profitability was a little less impressive. Reported EBITDA rose 4% and came in below expectations, though adding back a $90 million legal settlement does at least push the performance to "in line". Mining profits were down 10% and NAFTA profits were down a reported 7%, though much stronger after adjusting for that settlement. All told, NAFTA and Brazil (down 22%) disappointed, while AACIS (up 23%) and Europe (up 41%) outperformed.

    Facing Reality...

    Arguably more significant than reported earnings, ArcelorMittal management took full-year EBITDA guidance down from $8 billion (which no one really believed, given an average estimate of $7.5B to $7.6B going into the quarter) to "over $7 billion". Iron ore was blamed for the change, with management revising its full-year assumption down from $120/tonne to $100/tonne (implying $105/tonne for the second half of the year). With iron ore prices recently at $95/tonne, there is still risk to this number.

    … But Thinking Long Term

    While worries about iron ore prices are arguably the biggest issue for ArcelorMittal today, the company isn't backing away from its integrated model. In fact, it's upping its commitment. The company announced that it will acquire the 56.5% stake in the Mount Nimba iron ore project in Guinea previously owned by BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) and Areva. Deal terms weren't announced, but it sounds as though ArcelorMittal is paying less than $200 million for 935M tonnes of shippable ore reserves with an average grade of 63.5%. Given the close proximity of this project to ArcelorMittal's existing iron ore operations in Liberia (about 40km away), the company may be able to generate meaningful synergies by sharing rail and port infrastructure; the deal is contingent on Guinea's government approving the use of Liberia's ports for exports. As an aside, ArcelorMittal has also been rumored to be interested in buying into Rio Tinto's (NYSE:RIO) Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, but it is less clear that Guinea's government would support using a Liberian port for that ore.

    What Can Make Things Better?

    For most of the year, European hot rolled steel prices have been trailing expectations and even though pricing has improved recently, they're still down about 8% year-to-date. Signs of improving construction and manufacturing demand are there in Europe, but coming along slowly. At the same time, there is still too much capacity operating unprofitably (or at least sub-optimally) in the European steel sector - it's getting better, but struggling companies are reluctant to cut back and see their cash flow problems get even worse.

    The U.S. market is better, even without the long-awaited big turn in non-residential construction. Nucor and Steel Dynamics have both sounded more positive of late on that key end-market, but the U.S. is just one of many markets that matter to ArcelorMittal.

    Bears will say that there just isn't room for prices to head much higher. Given the capacity situation in Europe and the price differentials with Chinese exports in the U.S., I concede that they have a point there. On the other hand, there is still at least the possibility that demand will continue to pick up through the second half of 2014 - meaning that ArcelorMittal may not have so much to gain with pricing, but they can pick up more volume (which is also good for utilization and operating cost leverage).

    In the meantime, I expect investors will continue to pay quite a bit of attention to raw material prices and the differentials with finished steel prices. Less integrated steel companies like ThyssenKrupp and voestalpine have seen some benefits from that spread, though it is not like they've left ArcelorMittal in the dust with their share price performances. I would also note that the company (ArcelorMittal) continues to move forward with capital reallocation projects that are meant to steer more capital toward higher-return market opportunities (like a recent automotive steel plant opened in Hunan, China).

    The Bottom Line

    Factoring ArcelorMittal's guidance cut into 12-month EBITDA projections, my fair value on the shares only drops about $0.50 (to $17.30). The cut would have been a little steeper (close to a full dollar) were it not for the sequential reduction in net debt, a reduction which may be harder to maintain in the second half as the core ops are still consuming cash.

    I'm still directionally bullish on steel, including ArcelorMittal. I like Nucor as a company, though the stock isn't so cheap, and I'd also suggest investors look at Steel Dynamics and riskier names like Gerdau and Ternium. AK Steel is also worth a look from more aggressive investors, but ArcelorMittal continues to stand out to me as a good way to play a global construction recovery through a high-quality operator with leverage to better steel prices (and demand), as well as stabilization in coal and iron.
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