The 1266 low spx appears to be the end of an abc wave 4 that stopped right on top of the wave 1 up support. We know it is most likely an abc because the Dow made a new 3 legged high on May 1 that could not be a wave 2 or a diagnoal triangle. A B wave is all that remains as practical. If May 1 was a B on the Dow, it is near certain to be a B wave on the SP as well. This strongly suggest it was the wave 4 low I was looking for On June 4 astro turn date at 1270 spx. Also, if we look at the iv:c:4 high near 1334.50 spx - 68 (2 X Fib. 34), we get the bottom target of 1266.50, right where it stopped and formed a w4 low.
Now lets look at what the wave 5 up might bring. First we should note the many overlaps are found among the equity markets and the Dow. They suggest this wave 5 up will most likely be a failure.
Ralph always said one leg in a 5 legger would extend and the other two
would be similar in size/price. We don't expect them to be identical, but lets
look at where identical would be.
The wave one of C up was 108 points in 8 trading days and 12 cal. days
(13.5 pts. per trading day). So if this wave 5 up was identical, we would expect
a target of 1363 Sept. futs. And expect 1374
SPX. Our first set of 5 leggers up ended at 67.5 points off the low. 1255.50 to 1323= 67.5 ( 68= 2X Fib. 34). It can be argued the 1323 high is a w3 followed by a w4 and now in the wave 5 up.
Now lets look at our potential astro dates: We have two astro turn dates side by side on June 24/25. These are notworthy and if we look at what happened the last time they appeared on Dec. 19, 2011, we see they flung the SP into an uptrend that lasted for months. If they are equally as powerful this time, it would be expected that they fling the SP in a down trend for months...Maybe until Sept. 18 astro date.. If the sp appears to be completing a 5 legger up on June 25, I wouldn't want to be long on June 26. We have another potential turn on July 3 and on July 17. With 3 of these dates on the radar screen, it is tough to know which will reverse the trend. Many of the astro people I talk with are looking hard at June 25. One astro trader suggested June 25 as a top, Then July 3 as a low ( "a" or w1 down), then July 17 (as a wave 2 or wave B high), followed by a waterfall "C" or w3 down.
Anyway, these are the astro dates we should keep an eye on. And, we can see where this w5 might end if it is a failure and equal in length to the wave 1 up.
I would recommend writting all four astro dates on your calender if you plan on using them in your trading, or just watching them for fun. The astro people who bought 800 big sp's long on June 5 near 1267 (June contracts) have changed to the Sept. contracts and are still long looking for an exit based on the info above. They have not commited to a sell on June 25 just yet, but June 25 is the number one topic of their discussions in the last few days.
They do well because, unlike me, they stay with their winners and dump their loosers quickly.
Good luck to all and I hope these astro dates are helpful.